An assessment of the predictors of the dynamics in arable production per capita index, arable production and permanent cropland and forest area based on structural equation models

This study sets out to verify the key predictors of the dynamics of the arable production per capita index, the arable production and permanent crop land and forest area at a national scale in Cameroon. To achieve this objective, data for twelve time series data variables spanning the period 1961-2000 were collected from Oxford University, the United Nations Development program, the World Bank, FAOSTAT and the World Resource Institute. The data were analysed using structural equation models (SEM) based on the two stage least square approach (2SLS). To optimize the results, variables that showed high correlations were dropped because they will not add any new information into the models. The results show that the arable production per capita index is impacted more by population while the influence of rainfall on the arable production per capita index is weak. Arable production and permanent cropland on its part has as the main predictor arable production per capita index. Forest area is seen to be more vulnerable to trade in forest products and logging than any other variable. The models presented in this study are quite reliable because the p and t values are consistent and overall, these results are consistent with previous studies.